Essential guide to 2026 Academy Awards: Favourites, who’ll win, the trends

Compared to last year’s ceremony, the 98th Academy Awards feels positively pedestrian.

Think about the circumstances surrounding the event a year ago - the Californian wildfires had just devastated Tinseltown, Donald Trump had just returned to the White House with an anti-Hollywood agenda and the industry was rocked by the death of two-time Oscar winner Gene Hackman just days beforehand.

If that wasn’t enough, there was also the controversy surrounding offensive historic tweets posted by Emilia Perez star Karla Sofia Gascon, which dominated the awards season.

While this year’s awards cycle has seen its own share of controversy — the BBC’s bungling of Tourette syndrome campaigner John Davidson’s tic at the BAFTAs — it’s been mostly smooth sailing.

That’s largely a product of a small number of acclaimed films cleaning up at various awards ceremonies, leaving very little intrigue left for the Oscars.

But that makes it even more likely something unexpected will go viral (See: Slapgate), so here’s everything you need to know about Hollywood’s night of nights.

The movies

If you’re keen to get through as many Oscar-nominated films as possible before the event, focus on the movies that earned the lion’s share of nominations.

Ryan Coogler’s supernatural period thriller Sinners, starring Michael B Jordan, broke the all-time record with 16 nominations, Leonardo DiCaprio’s One Battle After Another came in second with 13 nods and Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value and Frankenstein scored nine apiece.

Nomadland’s Oscar-winning director Chloe Zhao is back with another critically acclaimed work, Hamnet, which earned eight nominations.

Aussies in action

We might not have anywhere near the 14 nominees that set an Australian Oscars record in 2016 (courtesy of Mad Max: Fury Road), but we do have quality contenders in the categories of best actress (Rose Byrne) and best supporting actor (Jacob Elordi).

Byrne gave a career-best turn in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, while Elordi’s performance was literally transformative in Frankenstein.

Unfortunately for Byrne, Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley looks to be a lock here, though Elordi could surprise in a wide-open category that has already delivered wins for Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) and Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) this cycle.

Even less likely to win (for reasons that will be explained later) is Nick Cave, who earned a nom for best original song for his theme for Train Dreams.

Other Aussies up for gongs include Fiona Crombie (best production design, Hamnet) and Guido Wolter (best visual effects, Sinners).

The controversy

Though it hasn’t exploded in the same way the aforementioned Emilia Perez scandal did last year, the disquiet around Marty Supreme director Josh Safdie has been bubbling away in the background.

It all stemmed from a gossip website’s allegation Safdie presided over a toxic work environment on a previous film set, which precipitated a creative split from his brother and directing partner, Benny.

It was dismissed as an attempted smear campaign by some in the industry, but it seems to have spooked awards voters.

Star Timothee Chalamet, once a prohibitive Oscars frontrunner, won at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes pre-scandal, but hasn’t won since, and the movie has the dubious distinction of losing the most BAFTAs when it went 0-11 last month.

History awaits

As mentioned earlier, Sinners broke the record for nominations in a single year and appears to be building the sort of momentum voters in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences can’t resist.

Set in 1930s Mississippi, with digital effects turning Jordan into twin brothers, Coogler’s movie uses prohibition, vampires and white supremacists as an allegory for race politics in America.

It didn’t just wow the critics — it broke box office records and had pundits calling it the “most culturally important” movie of last year.

Jordan and co-star Delroy Lindo were on stage at the BAFTAs when Davidson involuntarily yelled the N-word, and support for the film has only grown since then.

Top gongs

Despite the late momentum for Sinners, One Battle After Another has been a consistent favourite in the prestigious categories of best director and best picture.

Filmmaker Paul Thomas Anderson has certainly done his time, and most in the industry would say he has earned the gong, while the movie’s recent win at the Producers Guild Awards is worth noting.

That event is seen as a bellwether for the Oscars, with seven of the past eight PGA winners going on to earn the Academy Award for best picture.

The one wrinkle to consider is the preferential voting system, which may advantage Sinners, a universally popular film that has significant support across all the branches of the academy’s membership.

Foreign influence

Sentimental Value set a record for most nominations for a foreign-language film, and it reflects the growing recognition for international cinema after Korean black comedy Parasite won best picture in 2020.

This year, there are two foreign-language films among the 10 best picture nominees (the other is The Secret Agent), and you could make the case Iranian Cannes winner, It Was Just an Accident, was snubbed.

So, what is driving this foreign invasion? Changes to the voting process that allows the entire academy to vote on best international film (previously it was a small panel) has meant more members are exposed to brilliant international cinema, which, of course, is in itself hardly a new phenomenon.

The Oscars have just caught up.

Golden moment

The Academy Awards is expected to be the ultimate crowning moment for the record-breaking Netflix hit, KPop Demon Hunters.

This pop cultural phenomenon is an unbackable favourite with the bookies to win best animated feature, as well as best original song for Golden (Sorry, Nick Cave).

Even more exciting, the Demon Hunters will be performing the banger live during the ceremony.

In memoriam

After last year breaking from the traditional format of a video montage to present a special tribute to Hackman, the Oscars will do something similar to pay tribute to the recent death of beloved director Rob Reiner, who, along with his wife, was allegedly murdered by his son.

Billy Crystal and Meg Ryan, co-stars of Reiner’s hit film, When Harry Met Sally, will appear on stage along with other actors from Reiner’s movies.

Barbra Streisand is also in talks to perform her hit, The Way We Were, as a tribute to Robert Redford, her co-star in the movie of the same name.

Red carpet

Let’s be honest, for many people, the real battle worth watching at these awards ceremonies is fought on the red carpet, as celebrities compete to stay on the right side of best-and-worst lists online.

Keep an eye on One Battle After Another star Teyana Taylor, nominated for best supporting actress, who has been serving fierce looks this awards season, and how will Chalamet and his partner, Kylie Jenner, coordinate their outfits this time?

Chalamet’s Marty Supreme co-star, Odessa A’zion, and Bugonia star Emma Stone, up for best actress, have also delivered eye-catching red carpet moments this cycle, while you can expect some old school Hollywood glamour from Byrne and fellow best actress nominee, Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue).

Hosting duties

After a solid performance in the job last year, Conan O’Brien is back as host of the Academy Awards.

It’ll be fascinating to see if he can top last year’s opening sketch, which featured the comedian emerging from Demi Moore’s body in a spoof of the latter’s film, The Substance.

In terms of presenters scheduled to give out the awards, last year’s big winners, Adrien Brody, Keiran Culkin, Zoe Sandana and Mikey Madison, are locked in, along with a variety of stars, including Robert Downey Jr., Anne Hathaway and Chris Evans.

The 98th Academy Awards takes place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on March 16 and will be broadcast on Channel 7 and 7PLUS from 8am.