Labor arrogance on display with Bowen’s gaffe

There are some Labor MPs who believe the only thing Bill Shorten needs to do to win the next election is to keep his mouth shut.

There is such confidence among Labor MPs of victory in May, they fear only a major gaffe by the PM-in-waiting could jeopardise their chances.

Most political pundits have already written off the Coalition’s chances at the forthcoming election, seeing a bloodbath ahead for the Government akin to that inflicted on the ALP in 2013 after the dysfunction of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years.

But as Parliament gears up for the year ahead, there are signs that the political breeze could be shifting — albeit just a puff at this stage.

Who would have thought that an extremely niche Labor policy aimed at curbing a lucrative superannuation tax perk could still be making headlines two years after it was proposed by the Opposition.

While few people understand the nitty-gritty of changes to dividend imputation and franking credits, announced by Labor in 2016, those affected have calculated that removing the perk substantially reduces their retirement income.

The change is targeted at those who are drawing an income from their superannuation nest egg while also receiving tax credits based on their shareholdings.

Confronted by an angry ABC talkback caller about the policy this week, shadow treasurer Chris Bowen responded that anyone who felt angry enough about the policy was “perfectly entitled to vote against us”.

Unapologetic about what he and Shorten both said was a statement of the obvious, Bowen went on to say that the $55 billion policy had already been road-tested in a series of by-elections. He was not for turning.

“This is the policy we will take to the election, it’s the right policy. There is not one skerrick of complacency in the Labor Party about the election, nor are we concerned about the Liberal Party scare campaign,” he said.

But perhaps he should be.

Liberal MP Tim Wilson, chairman of the House economics committee, is holding hearings into the changes, which the Government is now referring to as the “retiree tax” component of Labor’s $200 billion tax hikes. And grey power is showing it could be electoral gold for the Coalition.

With time on their hands to write letters, call radio talkback lines and mobilise ahead of the election, retirees are ramping up the campaign against Labor’s changes.

They will also be out in force manning polling booths at the election, firming up the base for the Liberal Party in a way that Malcolm Turnbull was never able to do.

Even if people don’t understand the details of the policy changes, the “vibe” of what Bowen admits is a “courageous” move could prove dangerous for an Opposition that is attempting to prove it poses no economic risk.

Labor has already been forced to make changes to the policy after it faced a backlash from 200,000 pensioners caught up by the changes, and will no doubt be hearing more from marginal seat MPs and candidates about how older Australians are feeling about the proposal.

Evidence to the committee of self-funded retirees restructuring their affairs to instead draw the pension is also heaping pressure on Labor to adjust the policy.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg have seized on Bowen’s talkback advice to redouble their attack on the proposal, releasing figures to show that 50,000 voters in 10 marginal seats would lose up to $2700 a year under the policy. This includes the marginal seat of Cowan in WA, where 3173 voters are claiming the perk.

Morrison has accused Shorten of giving the “two-fingered salute to retirees” in a sign of the scare campaign to come from the Liberal Party.

Labor believes that most of those retirees affected by the policy are not its people in any case, and winding back the “unsustainable” loophole will give it more money to spend on schools, hospitals and low and middle-income earners.

Bowen says he relishes the fight with the coalition on Labor’s tax plans, but it could be a risky punch-up.

And while the wannabe treasurer says the Opposition’s tax plans have already passed the test of one election campaign, the parties go to the next election in a very different context to that of the 2016 poll.

For starters, no one thought Labor was going to win at the last election, and so there was naturally less scrutiny of the Opposition’s proposals.

This year, the likelihood of a Labor win is seen as so likely that the sharemarket has already started to adjust.

This week’s Newspoll shows that the contest between Labor and the Coalition has tightened. The boost for the Liberals during the holiday period, when most people switch off politics, comes amid a flurry of gloomy economic news and as the Government sharpens its jobs and growth narrative.

But the result provides a tiny kernel of hope for Government MPs staring into the abyss.

And while Labor’s bold tax reform agenda may well be courageous, goading senior Australians to vote for the Liberal Party is a gift to Morrison and a sign that Labor is slipping into arrogance.