AARON PATRICK: Pauline Hanson’s One Nation surge sparks questions over future Immigration Minister role

Here’s a thought experiment. In a theoretical Liberal-National-One Nation government, which portfolio would Pauline Hanson hold?

Presumably, the flame-haired trouble-maker would seek the immigration portfolio, allowing her to introduce Trump-like restrictions on Muslim immigration.

Or maybe she would become industry minister, leading a return to Australian manufacturing through government subsidies and taxes on imports?

What about Barnaby Joyce, aka the beetrooter? In this new world of conservative politics, maybe there would be no more apt representative of Australia on the world stage?

Foreign Minister Joyce could turn up at the United Nations and condemn the global forces of wokeism ruining Western civilisation. With those cowboy hats and elastic-sided boots, he would be a hit at Mar-a-Lago.

This scenario became a little less unlikely on Saturday when One Nation demonstrated its ability to attract voters in large numbers and skilled political operators.

Responding to One Nation’s easy win in the southern NSW seat of Farrer, Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson did not exclude the possibility of a future alliance with the populist right-wing party.

Asked if the Coalition could accept a third member, Mr Wilson said on Sunday: “It all comes down to what the Australians put up.”

In other words: if it will get us into power, yes.

Two seats in the House of Representatives is a long way from the government benches. To have any chance of getting there, One Nation and Ms Hanson will have to demonstrate discipline and good judgement mostly absent since the fish-and-chip shop owner walked out of the Liberal Party 30 years ago.

The Liberals are terrified of this assault from their right.

One Nation’s potency is shown in the Liberals’ right shift on climate change and immigration. It is not all bad news. Despite the loss of Farrer, there has been a small but noticeable improvement in the Coalition’s primary support in opinion polls, at the expense of One Nation, since Angus Taylor became leader of the opposition in February.

But the Liberal Party still trails One Nation, leaving it vulnerable in conservative electorates across the continent.

One Nation’s record of internal discord and bursts of popularity makes it uncertain that its success will persist. But a Liberal Party going through the grieving process of losing its right flank may have to accept that it may not return.

One Nation is no longer just the Pauline Hanson show. She has recruited tough, experienced men who could take control of the party when she leaves, including Mr Joyce, South Australian leader Cory Bernardi and David Farley, a former company chief executive who won Farrer.

If One Nation wins more seats in the lower house, Australian politics may become similar to other parliamentary democracies, including Britain, Germany, Italy, Israel and Canada, where the government is often or usually formed only with the support of minor parties.

Which is why the path to government for Ms Hanson is not so improbable as it seemed even a year ago.

The Farrer failure will not cost Mr Taylor his job, Liberal sources said. The result was expected for months. The party emerged with a humiliating 12 per cent on Saturday, after polling predicted the result might have been in the single digits.

The result gave Anthony Albanese an opportunity to revisit his criticism of the Liberal Party for removing leader Sussan Ley three months ago “without even being given the opportunity to do a single Budget Reply” speech.

There was another speech Ms Ley didn’t deliver: her valedictory speech. That’s because she was so eager to get out of parliament, and begin enjoying a pension worth several million dollars, that she never turned up to work again.

On the weekend, Ms Ley engaged in some I-told-you-so recriminations for her removal. “The voters never get it wrong,” she wrote.

The Liberals’ Farrer disaster would not have happened without Ms Ley’s retirement. The seat was lost after 77 years in Liberal and National hands in an unnecessary byelection.

Faux sympathy from the prime minister does not change the damage done by Ms Ley to her ex-colleagues, party members and supporters. The winner is Pauline Hanson and her band of happy followers.