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RBA boss to give view on rapid recovery

Colin Brinsden, AAP Economics and Business CorrespondentAAP
Australia's economy grew in the second half of 2020 at its fastest pace in history.
Camera IconAustralia's economy grew in the second half of 2020 at its fastest pace in history.

Australians, business and Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe will give their view on last week's flurry of indicators that confirmed the economy is recovering from recession at a rapid pace.

Aside from several consumer and business surveys next week, Dr Lowe will address an Australian Financial Review conference on Wednesday.

It will be his first public appearance since the release of the national accounts that showed the economy had grown in the second half of 2020 at its fastest pace in history.

The economy grew by a stronger than expect 3.1 per cent in the December quarter after an upwardly revised 3.4 per cent three months earlier.

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"This is a far better outcome than seen in most other comparable countries and reflects Australia's better virus control and better protection of the economy," AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said.

On top of that, Australia posted its biggest ever trade surplus in January, while low interest rates and government incentives have seen house prices rise at their fastest pace since 2003 and demand for home loans at a record high.

Even so, Dr Lowe has been adamant the Reserve Bank won't be lifting the cash rate from a record low 0.1 per cent until inflation is sustainably within the two to three per cent target band.

He does not expect this to happen until 2024, at the earliest.

The consumer price index currently stands at just 0.9 per cent.

However, global bond markets have a different view, fearing stimulus measures across the world will fuel a rapid rise in inflation.

This has seen a jump in market interest rates or yields, countering the efforts of the RBA and other central banks to keep interest rates, and in turn borrowing costs, low.

The RBA confirmed after last week's monthly board meeting it had to accelerate its bond buying program with the aim of keeping bond yields down.

"We agree that the RBA needs to push back against the sharp rise in bond yields as it could threaten the recovery," Dr Oliver said, noting the market is factoring four rate hikes by early 2024.

However, he does expect the RBA could start lifting rates in 2023.

Tuesday will see the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index, a pointer to future household spending, and the monthly National Australia Bank business survey, a guide to hiring and investment.

The monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey is released on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Australian shares look set for a sharp rally at the start of the week, although interest could be lighter than usual with several states closed for public holidays, including Victoria.

Australian share futures were up 107 points, or 1.59 per cent, at 6800 helped by a rebound on Wall Street on Friday.

All three main US indices bounced back from earlier losses, as the tech-laden Nasdaq rebounded after dropping 10 per cent from a recent record high.

Investors have been spooked by rising interest rates on bond markets, offsetting optimism about the economic recovery.

By Friday's close the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.85 per cent to 31,496.3 points, the S&P 500 gained 1.95 per cent to 3,841.94 and the Nasdaq climbed 1.55 per cent to 12,920.15.

On Saturday the US Senate finally narrowly approved a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill to assist the country out of the pandemic and economic doldrums.

The bill returns to the House next week for congressional approval before it can be signed-off by US President Joe Biden.

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