Europe is failing to deter Russia from escalating its attacks on NATO, according to the Chief of Germany’s Defence Force.
General Carsten Breuer made the comments as the German government said Russia masterminded a drone attack at a German airbase used by the military and NATO, as well as the Ukrainians, to transport supplies and weapons.
The discovery of up to three drones loaded with explosives at the Leipzig/Halle Airport is the most serious attack on NATO soil by Russia to date and follows a string of drone sightings around European airports and Russian drones and even missiles crashing into NATO territory.
Asked at the Bled Strategic Forum, an exclusive gathering of security, political and diplomatic figures in Slovenia in Central Europe attended by The Nightly, if NATO was deterring Russia, General Breuer said: “Have you seen recently an attack against NATO countries?”
“We are deterring on the conventional side,” he continued. “We are not deterring — not deterring enough — in this sphere of hybrid attacks.”
“So we have to get better in this, and we have to understand that Russia doesn’t see it in different steps — they’re not talking about peace, crisis, war; they see it as a continuum, and they are escalating and de-escalating.
“So we have to cope with this situation, and we have to develop our instruments to cope with the situation also for the future.”
Separately, Germany said a rocket attack on its energy grid in the eastern state of Brandenburg on Tuesday was “sabotage” but unlike the drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport last month, was not yet ready to say who was responsible.
Unlike Germany’s other airports, Leipzig/Halle operates 24 hours a day making it a hub for militaries and Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines which transports cargo for Ukraine.
A drone carrying an explosive device and a detonator was discovered near a plane on August 4. The device did not explode. A second drone is suspected to have collided with a DHL aircraft nearby and German media has since reported the discovery of a third drone rigged with explosives. A well-placed European source believed Russian intelligence was responsible.
Almost a month later, Germany’s Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt declared that Russia was responsible but said it was not an “act of war.”
“Taken together, police investigations, patterns of the crime and intelligence findings substantiate Russian responsibility for the attempted attack at Leipzig Airport,” he said in Berlin.
“We do not view Leipzig as an isolated incident, but rather see it in the context of other hybrid actions. We assume that Germany will be the target of further hybrid attacks by Russia.”
Germany summoned the ambassador, closed the Russian consulate in the city of Bonn and shut down a Russian cultural centre. It had already raised the threat level to high.
NATO boss Mark Rutte backed the German finding saying: “The evidence is clear.” He said the Alliance stood in solidarity with Germany. The Secretary-General will meet EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on Wednesday to further coordinate a European response. Europe is preparing more sanctions against Russia.
European governments expressed similar messages of support for Germany. Also speaking at the Bled Strategic Forum was George Robertson, one of Mr Rutte’s predecessors.
Lord Robertson served as NATO Secretary-General between 1999 and 2003 and recently conducted a review of the UK’s defence posture. He has regularly called for higher defence spending in the UK and across Europe.
He said the public would not forgive politicians who did not prepare the public and their defences according to the heightened threat.
“We’re underprepared, not unprepared, underprepared, of that there is no doubt,” he said.
Asked when a sabotage attack could cross the threshold and reach an act of war, he said: “We’ll know it when we see it.”
“The threat is not in anyway theoretical, it’s real and it’s happening. The impression is that we think about war and threats as being a tank formation. That’s not the way that modern war takes place.
“So at the moment we are under attack, daily. Across Europe we’re seeing sabotage operations take place contracted out to organised crime, that’s the simplest way of doing it … you deny any responsibility for doing it and that is ongoing at the present moment.”
General Breuer also expressed concern that Russia could exploit the United States’ efforts to rebalance NATO responsibilities before Europe was ready to defend itself alone.
He said Europe could in the future take charge and defend the continent without the Americans but not yet.
“Can we do it without the Americans? If we take the time right now, no. Can we do it in the near future? Probably yes. Can we do it in the far future? Definitely yes,” he said.
“We need transparency about what are our obligations, what are the requirements, what are our goals, our aims from NATO. What do we want to do nationally wise? And we have to compare this with the capabilities we have in stock.
“And if the Americans are pulling out, this is coming from 2010, then we have to do it with transparency; we need a roadmap to compare capability, and then we go into developing capabilities which can really support this approach.
“So, I’m afraid of non-transparent actions in the meantime where we don’t have the capabilities and Russians see this.”
The trans-Atlantic alliance pledges that each member considers an attack on one and an attack on all. The only time the mutual defence vow has been activated was after the September 11 attacks on the United States.
As part of his attacks on the European Union and NATO in particular, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw American support for the Alliance if member countries did not raise their defence spending.
Last week CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow,for what many US media outlets reported was to directly warn the Kremlin against launching an attack on NATO.
Allison Hooker, the undersecretary for political affairs at the US State Department, said the Hague summit, when NATO countries agreed to increase their defence spending, was “miraculous” and that the Trump administration’s focus had moved from “burden sharing” to “burden shifting” ending in a “permanent realignment”.
“Although it’s been disputed maybe over the years and questioned … President Trump and Secretary (Marco) Rubio have made clear this year that we are a part of the NATO alliance, we are not leaving the alliance.”
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