AFL grand final weather revealed: Jane Bunn explains what to expect at the MCG

Melbourne is set for a warm finish to the week, with both Thursday and Friday reaching 26C.

Thursday brings plenty of sunshine, while Friday sees cloud building through the day. For anyone in Victoria with its public holiday, there’s a good stretch there to make the most of.

A cool change arrives late on Friday afternoon, bringing the risk of showers and even a storm.

But that’s nothing compared to what follows.

Saturday is a different story altogether. Colder air arrives early in the morning, and the top will be just 17C — though it’ll sit around 13C or 14C for much of the day, including for the AFL grand final itself.

Add a cold southerly wind, plenty of showers tending to steady rain at times, and up to 10mm through the day, and it makes for a raw afternoon at the MCG.

It couldn’t be more different to the last time Melbourne put on a big show there — that sunny, still Friday for the NFL.

Why the timing is so unfortunate

It comes down to a trough and cold front arriving later on Friday and into early Saturday, combining with a feed of moisture stretching right across the continent. This rain has travelled all the way from Western Australia to reach us, and it lands on precisely the wrong day.

Grand final day has always been a bit of a lottery in late September — we’re still in the thick of spring’s tug of war between warm air to the north and cold air to the south — but this year the timing is about as poor as it gets.

For anyone heading to the ground, dress for winter rather than spring. Layers, a waterproof jacket, and don’t be fooled by the warmth just the day before — Melbourne is known for how quickly our weather can change.

Then it turns around again.

There are just leftover showers on Sunday morning before things clear, and Monday and Tuesday are looking lovely again — perfect for the school holidays.

We’ll keep you across the weather timing right through grand final day, on 7NEWS Melbourne.