Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard primed for latest instalment of Tour de France’s greatest modern rivalry

It’s already cycling’s greatest modern rivalry. Two riders who have dominated the world’s most famous bike race – the Tour de France – for half a decade. And there is no sign yet of either Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard slowing down. With the 112th edition of race set for its Grand Depart from Lille in France’s north next Saturday, experts say this year’s gruelling 3,320km endurance contest is again shaping as a head-to-head battle between this generation’s two dominant figures. “They are the best two riders in the world, and they are well clear of everyone else,” SBS broadcaster Matt Keenan, who will call his 19th Tour in 2025, said. Pogacar, 26, of Slovenia, is the reigning champion having held the leader’s yellow jersey all the way from Stage 4 to the finish in 2024 to beat Vingegaard by 6min. 17sec. overall. The victory added to his 2020 and 2021 Tour wins, and second place finishes in 2022 and 2023, while also helping him make history by becoming the first cyclist this century to win both the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia in the same year. Vingegaard, however, entered the 2024 race underdone having rushed back from a horror crash during the Tour of the Basque Country in which he broke seven ribs, his finger and collarbone in several pieces, fractured his sternum and suffered two punctured lungs and internal bleeding. His injuries were so severe his was not a certain starter in the Tour de France until days before. In the two years prior, Vingegaard, 28, of Denmark, won the Tour and was one of few riders to land a blow on Pogacar, grinding him down on high mountain stages and edging him during time trials to win both the 2022 and 2023 editions. “It’s the best rivalry that we’ve seen this century,” Keenan said, noting that other modern rivalries such as Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana had been more one-sided. “Pogacar has won the Tour three times and Vingegaard has won twice, but Vingegaard wasn’t racing the first time Pogacar won, so in a way they are 2-2 head-to-head, and they have both had first place finishes where the other has been second. “But Pogacar comes into this year’s race as the favourite because of the season that he’s had.” Already in 2025, Pogacar has won six of the nine races he has entered, including the UAE Tour, Strade Bianche, Tour des Flandres, and, earlier this month, the precursor to the Tour, the Criterium du Dauphine. The three events Pogacar has not won this year, he finished second, or third. Keenan said Pogacar’s performance in the Dauphine, which he won by 59sec. from Vingegaard, sent an ominous warning for the Tour. “At the Dauphine, we got the result in the time trial that we were looking for in anticipation of the Tour,” Keenan said. “Remco Evenepoel won, Jonas Vingegaard was second and Tadej Pogarcar finished fourth. That had me excited for heading to the Tour that it’s going to be an even battle. But then we saw Pogacar in a couple of stages in the mountains and he destroyed them, it was phenomenal.” “The hope Vingegaard and Evenepoel would be having is, has he peaked too soon because we were still weeks away from the high stages of the Tour in the mountains and it’s a long time to be at such as high level.” Vingegaard’s Team Visma Lease a Bike has a slight edge over Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates, according to Keenan, although he said both teams are expected to have multiple riders in contention for the top 10 of the general classification. And this year’s route will also give Vingegaard some comfort with a move away from gravel and cobblestone roads and a return to familiar climbs he has dominated previously, including the Hautacam (Stage 12) and Col de la Loze (Stage 18). Vingegaard took time from Pogacar on Hautacam (1min. 4sec., Stage 18, 2022) and the Col de la Loze (5min. 45sec., Stage 17, 2023) on his way to winning the Tour in those years. In 2023, Pogacar famously told his team car over the radio, “I’m gone, I’m dead”, after losing Vingegaard’s wheel and watching his hopes of winning that year’s Tour implode on the slopes of the Col de la Loze. The 2025 Tour de France has seven flat stages, six hilly stages and six mountain stages, including five mountain-top finishes over three weeks. And after finishing away from central Paris for the first time in almost 50 years in 2024 because of the added security around the French capital in the lead-up to the Olympic Games, this year’s race returns to its traditional climax along the Champs-Elysees. Other famous climbs along the route include the Col du Tourmalet (Stage 14) and Mont Ventoux (Stage 16) but Keenan believes the Stage 18, which tops out more than 2,300m above sea level on the Col de la Loze and includes more than 5,500 of elevation gain over 171km of riding, could be the decisive day of the race. “It is a monster, and we have seen on that climb in the past Vingegaard able to get the best of Pogacar,” he said. “To put that stage into context with the amount of altitude gain, it is the equivalent of starting your day at sea level and working your way up to Mount Everest Base Camp. That is without question the toughest stage of the Tour and will be decisive. “What has proven historically to be to Vingegaard’s advantage is stages where there are multiple climbs at high altitude. “Pogacar has got much more punch whereas Vingegaard is the diesel machine and tries to wear his rivals down. The long, long days suit him a little bit better than Pogacar. “Vingegaard will have to use his team to try and weaken Pogacar as much as possible but when come down to it, it’s going to be who has the best legs at the end of the day no matter how good each team is.” So far, six Australians are confirmed starters in this year’s Tour. And if there are no late additions it would be just half of the record-equalling 12 Australians raced two years ago. The headline Aussie is Ben O’Connor, of Team Jayco AlUla, a fourth-place finisher in the 2021 general classification and a mountain-top finish stage winner the same year. Other Aussies Harry Sweeney, of EF Education, Kaden Groves, of Alpecin Deceuninck, Jarrad Drizners, of Lotto, and Robert Stannard and Jack Haig, of Bahrain Victorious, will have more team-focused roles and are not expected to challenge for stage wins or the general classification. Sweeney is a super domestique working for past grand tour winner Richard Carapaz, while Groves is the key lead-out man for sprinter Jasper Phillipson, who is a favourite for the points classification. Keenan believes Perth-raised O’Connor, 29, at his best can make a statement and finish on the podium in Paris, having proven in the past he’s prepared to take risks in pursuit of a stage win. “There is no middle ground with Ben, he rolls the dice, and I love the way he goes about it,” he said. “He is prepared to lay it all on the line and risk completely blowing up.” Keenan said while he expected the contest between two of cycling’s modern greats to dominate the storyline of this year’s Tour, anything was possible during a three-week competition with so many variables. FIVE STAGES TO WATCH Stage 2, Sunday, July 6 Lauwin-Planque to Bologne-sur-Mer 212km – Hilly At 212km, it’s the longest stage of the 2025 Tour de France and could present some early drama with its hilly route that is also vulnerable to crosswinds. The final 10km features two sharp climbs, Saint-Etienne-au-Mont (900m at 11 per cent) and Cote d’Outreau (800m at 8.8 per cent), and could facilitate an early shake up of the general classification. Stage 12, Thursday, July 17 Auch to Hautacam 181km – Mountain finish Covering 181km to a summit finish that has featured six times in the Tour de France, this stage will hold fond memories for GC contender Jonas Vingegaard, having dropped rival Tadej Pogacar on the same 13.6km Hautacam climb in 2022 enroute to his first overall Tour win. Stage 16, Tuesday, July 22 Montpellier to Mont Ventoux 172km – Mountain finish This finish at to the exposed summit of Mont Ventoux has a history of drama. The Tour last reached this summit in 2013, when Chris Froome won. He made headlines again in 2016 when strong winds forced the finish to be relocated last minute to nearby Chalet Reynard and Froome crashed into a motorbike and then ran part of the climb to find a new bike. Stage 18, Thursday, July 24 Vif to Courchevel Col de la Loze 171km – Mountain finish The Col de la Loze is another climb that Vingagaard should relish. in 2023, Pogacar famously cracked under pressure from Vingegaard on the marathon 26.2km ascent and radioed the now-infamous words, “I’m gone, I’m dead”. With 5,500 metres of elevation gain, this stage sets a new benchmark for total climbing in a single day. Stage 21, Sunday, July 27 Mantes-la-Ville to Paris Champs-Elysees 120km – Flat Back in Paris after a rare finish in Nice in 2024 because of Olympic Games preparation, this will mark the 50-year anniversary since the first arrival on the Champs-Elysees. To spice things up there are a couple of climbs to tackle in Montmartre along the way, meaning the peloton is likely to split and there could well be a breakaway win and GC time gaps.

Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard primed for latest instalment of Tour de France’s greatest modern rivalry

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